Survivorship Bias - aus Erfolgen lernt man wenig bis gar nichts

Aus Fehlern lernen, das wird häufig propagiert. Nur wenn man sich umschaut, es wird vergleichsweise selten darüber berichtet. Stattdessen stehen doch eher die Erfolgsgeschichten im Vordergrund. Das ist ein großer Fehler, findet David McRaney. In diesem wunderbaren und humorvollen TED Talk spricht er über den Survivorship Bias:
"Success stories are often used as templates while the most valuable lessons hide in the history of endeavors that did not end well."
Als ein Beispiel, warum man sich nicht ausschließlich an den super Erfolgreichen orientieren soll, nennt er die Gastronomie:
"If you see a cluster of super successes, that is evidence for a business you should avoid. Because they must be super successful to survive in a hostile enviroment. Most restaurants fail after about three years, statistically speaking. So when they fail, they are removed from your view [...] all that's left behind are the super successes. [...] The super successes misrepresent the restaurant business as a whole."
Fazit
"The great lesson from survivorship bias is that the advice business is a monopoly run by survivors. That means that they can't tell what you ought not to do, what you shouldn't do. [...] So if you base your all of your knowledge on how to do things of the super successful or you pour over books that detail the histories of companies that shook the planet, your knowledge of the world would be extremely biased and enormously incomplete because your are not learning about the failures and you should really pay attention to the failures [...]"


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